The Ten Year Bet

In June of 2008, I made a bet. I bet a friend that within 10 years the New Orleans Hornets and Chris Paul would win an NBA title. If I could go back, would I still make it?

It all started after 2am, the best time to delve into high-octane sports arguments. In the height of my 2008 stand that both Kevin Garnett and Chris Paul were better MVP candidates than Kobe Bryant (still believe that), I had to defend myself. Being attacked from all sides by Kobe and LeBron supporters, it was at the argument’s peak that Chris Paul’s abilities were called into question. After being challenged to take a bet that he and the Hornets would not win a title in the next 10 years, I boldly rose to the challenge.

Of course, being that the wager is only for $10 (1 per year), I can safely say I would do it again. But the fact is that the years since Chris Paul officially took over as a top 5 point guard in the league have not been kind to the Hornets. Management has not exactly shown a commitment to winning by surrounding Paul with the talent he needs around him. (There is an interesting subplot of the bet involving CP3…I will just say that my position has always been that if Paul leaves New Orleans the bet is off).

Regardless, a few good draft choices and a little luck and I still have 9 more chances (2010 to 2018) to claim 10 bucks, and more importantly, the pride associated with winning. Chris Paul will be the best point guard in the game (if he is not there already), which also helps me.

But now, Chris Paul aside, what bets would I make for the next ten years of the NBA? (Note: I have no plans to gamble at any point in my life. Just roll with the premise.)

Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant Will Both Win Another Title

If Wade stays in Miami, it will be because Pat Riley brings in one of the many available stars from the 2010 free agency class to help him out. Riley knows this, and for that reason I see no way that he does not bring in a big name to carry some of the load. The Heat right now are one piece away from title contention (a dominant post presence). The combination of Wade, Beasley, and a combination of Alston/Chalmers at the point is enough around the perimeter.

This is where I start to dream about the idea of the two most possible scenarios: Bosh or LeBron coming to Miami. If either happens, the Heat instantly become legitimate contenders. Be it one of the big names or someone else, Wade is going to get enough help to win another before his career is done.

As for Kobe, his window is much smaller, but he already has all the pieces in place. The Lakers as a team are so unbelievably stacked with talent that it seems unfair to the rest of the NBA. The less work Bryant has to do (he has a ton of miles as it is), the better their chances are at the end. If they have the motivation they can just win another one this season without going far into the next decade.

I still think Kobe Bryant is a terrible teammate, but I cannot deny his skill. Does he make players around him better? No. But with that roster, he does not need to. He can be the fantastic individual player that he is, pick his spots and take over when the time comes, and the Lakers can win it all. Kobe has maybe 3 more years to do this, and I think he gets it done one more time.

Kevin Durant Will Be the Scoring Leader At Least 3 Times

Kevin Durant is one of the most dynamic scorers in the NBA, and he is only 21 years old. He is a matchup nightmare. A 6’9″ guard who can shoot over PG/SGs and blow by any bigs you put on him. Who is going to guard this guy? He already is averaging 28 points per, and he is not even close to his physical prime. He could become the best pure scorer in the NBA, which is why at least 3 scoring titles seems like a sure thing to me. I hope he gets a championship in there as well, but that depends on how well OKC surrounds him with talent (so far, excellent job).

LeBron James Will Win His First Title…in Cleveland

His size creates a major defensive conundrum, and he can play all 5 positions on the floor. But outside of his size, he cannot hurt you anywhere else. The barrel-to-the-basket move got him to the Finals once, but until King James can develop a post-game I am not scared. He is either going to charge to the rim like a rhinoceros or pull up from deep. I blame this mostly on coaching. Mike Brown makes no use of LeBron’s unique talents and the team suffers because of it. His go-to 1-4 set with LeBron getting the ball at the top of the key and basically doing everything himself will not win a title.

In ten years though, these problems will have changed. LeBron will have post moves, probably a new coach, and maybe a new team (if it is the Knicks then I change my bet to 0 titles ever). He will have a solid supporting cast wherever he is, and finally will be able to contribute rather than doing everything (see: Kobe Bryant’s most recent title). I think LeBron gets his, and I think he stays where he belongs—in Cleveland.

(Or Miami where he and Wade win 3 more…let me dream.)

The Clippers Will Blow a Draft Pick

Hey, I needed at least one sure thing.

More Questions

I stayed pretty conservative, just because thinking back the game has changed so much in the last ten years. Based on that, there is no way we can anticipate the changes that are coming. Will John Wall be the sure thing that every analyst believes he is? Will Brandon Jennings pan out over ten years time? Is Tyreke Evans the best player from the 2009 draft class? Looking ahead just a few months, in what ways will the free agency of 2010 shape the league’s future?

There are plenty of questions that will keep NBA fans entertained over the next decade. But for me, it is going to be hard to top the bet made on June 21, 2008, at a friend’s place around 2am.

Come on, CP3. We still have 9 chances to win me a Hamilton.