The 2010 Laws of the Playoffs

Though the Steelers are not a part of it this season (more on that to come), the NFL playoffs begin this weekend. With a few rules in place, I think we can make some predictions on the results.

Back in September I made predictions for the playoff teams. I went 7/12 (for the second straight year strangely), missing on the 14-2 Colts (oops) and 12-4 Vikings (thought Favre was done), among others. The plus side is that I can learn from this. I learn more each season that in the NFL (and professional sports in general), history tends to repeat rule itself. There is some information to gather from the 2009 regular season in looking forward to next year, but for now I present my 2010 Laws of the Playoffs (in order of importance).

Law 1: Tanking Never Works

We have seen it fail in the past, and yet teams still maintain that shutting it down for the last few regular season games will benefit them. The year that New England went 16-0, they played every game to win. The did not lose the Super Bowl because they played too many games. They lost because the Giants were the first team they played that completely dedicated themselves to the pass rush. (The Ravens did in the regular season, and were one timeout miscue from winning then.) They lost, plain and simple.

The injury card might get played here, but I still do not buy it. Injury can happen in any regular season game or any practice. It is a part of football. The Steelers decided to play against the Browns in the last game of last season and Roethlisberger was injured. The decision to play was questioned, and the Steelers were written off. A few weeks later, I was in downtown Pittsburgh celebrating the Super Bowl victory.

Somehow with the passage of time, NFL teams have deduced that the reason the Patriots were not able to seal the deal was because they should have rested down the stretch after clinching their top seed. That is absolutely ridiculous. In a game of precise timing where every player talks about “game speed”, playing to win is critical for success. Therefore, the first law of the 2010 Playoffs decrees that any team that tanked down the stretch will not advance.

Law 2: Never Trust Number One

In the last decade of the NFL, only the 2003 Patriots entered the playoffs as a number one seed and won the Super Bowl. Every other Super Bowl winner this millennium was from a lower seed. While I cannot explain exactly why this is true, my bet would be the schedule. To obtain the best record in a conference, a favorable schedule is absolutely key. Winning more than 10 games in the NFL takes more than skill or game-planning. It also involves a lot of luck and a lower quality group of opponents.

Using simple probability, it is easy to create the second law of the 2010 playoffs—a number one seed will not win it all.

Law 3: The Quarterback is King

My football philosophy has never wavered. Run the ball, play defense. I still think it is the best way to win, and if a team masters those two things they will go far.

However, I may be forced to change my stubborn ways (not easy). The NFL has essentially legislated defense out of the game. You cannot hit anyone too high, too low, or too hard. You cannot touch the quarterback in any way. Even if you manage to hit the ball out of his hands, the play is going to be overturned to an incomplete pass. The NFL has gotten its wish. Quarterbacks and the offensive skill positions are the most protected players in the game, while defensive players, special teams, and linemen on both sides are ignored.

Unfortunately the Laws of the 2010 Playoffs must take these league changes into account. Law 3 states that a championship team must be run by an elite quarterback.

Law 4: You Need a Game Changer

• Jets: Darrelle Revis. He absolutely shuts down the other team’s number one.
• Ravens: Ray Rice. The rushing and receiving dual threat can break off a game-changing play at any time.
• Bengals: Nobody. I feel sorry for this team and all that they have gone through, but all they have is an overworked Benson, and an overrated Ochocinco.
• Patriots: Wes Welker. Their best offensive weapon is going to be hard to replace.
• Chargers: Antonio Gates. This matchup nightmare has been the best tight end in football for a long time. Now that Rivers has stepped up to another level, he is a huge weapon for San Diego.
• Colts: Peyton Manning. He was undeniably the best quarterback in the league this season. Unfortunately his team has already succumbed to the top two Laws. More on that later.
• Eagles: DeSean Jackson. He is, as of today, the most dangerous player in the game.
• Packers: Aaron Rodgers. Without him the Packers probably win 4 games this year. I would classify that as changing games.
• Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald. At his peak, unable to be covered.
• Cowboys: Nobody. Austin and Witten do not scare me. You can leave Roy Williams’ side of the field empty defensively if you like.
• Vikings: Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. Both can completely change the face of a game.
• Saints: Everyone. Every week the Saints beat you with someone else. But like the Colts, they are already out of it.

Law 5: There Will Be a Surprise

Last year, the Arizona Cardinals were the unexpected team of the playoffs. There will be an out-of-nowhere team this year that makes a deep run. This is the most confusing of the laws, because while it is assuredly going to happen, it is difficult to predict who that team will be. My money is on the Green Bay Packers. They finished the season very strong, but with a tough loss to keep them motivated (at Pittsburgh). If the offensive line is healthy, this team has all the pieces to be an extremely difficult opponent in the playoffs.

Putting It All Together

Now that the laws are established, here is how I see things playing out.

Round 1: The Wild Cards

Jets over Bengals (Law 1)

Ravens over Patriots (Law 4)

Packers over Cardinals (Law 1, Law 5)

Eagles over Cowboys (Law 4)

Round 2: Divisional Playoffs

Ravens over Colts (Law 1, Law 2)

Chargers over Jets (Law 3)

Saints over Eagles (Law 3, Law 4)

Packers over Vikings (Law 5)

Round 3: Conference Championships

Chargers over Ravens (Law 3)

Packers over Saints (Law 1, Law 2, Law 5)

The Super Bowl

Chargers over Packers

There you have it. According to the 2010 Laws of the Playoffs, the San Diego Chargers will prevail over the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl.

It was a roundabout way to make my playoff predictions, but I hope you enjoyed my take on this year’s playoff picture. What are your playoff or Super Bowl predictions? Let me know in the comments.