Superbowl 2008

Today, February 3rd, 2008 marks the date of the 42nd Superbowl in history. The undefeated Patriots are attempting to make history by going 19-0. The last team standing in their way is the New York Giants. Here is my analysis and prediction for tonight’s game.

Offense

The Patriot offense has been the most dominant and impressive all year. In fact, they probably have the most dominant offense in history. It is foolish to think that they will not have success scoring the ball even if the Giants defense plays well. I think that the Pats will do exactly what they have been doing all year: passing. I do not see Maroney putting in even one touchdown. All touchdowns will be from the air, but the question is who will be catching them. If the Giants have any sense, they will focus on Randy Moss. This means the other names will have better days. Expect Welker to lead in passing yards, but Randy Moss will still have a good game, probably just over 100 yards and a touch.

The Giants offense should be, in my opinion, running the ball for 65% of their plays. The Patriot run defense is easily the weakest part of their squad as a whole. The Giants need to exploit this singular weakness as much as they can. There is a chance that knowing it is their weakness the Pats have prepared a game plan to stop the run, leaving Eli with chances to make plays. When given the opportunity, he must capitalize on every one if his team is going to have a chance. I do not think Eli needs to be a star to win the game, and if he tries to be the Giants will lose.

Defense

The Patriots defense is pretty strong, but definitely their weaker side. As I mentioned above, they have been getting lit up by the run all year. The closest they came to losing (Baltimore) was due in large part to the running of Willis McGahee. With Brandon Jacobs in the backfield, the Pats defense needs to be concerned about getting pounded with the run. Their primary task as a unit is to get Tom Brady back onto the field. If the Giants are running the ball and consuming tons of clock, it will be much more difficult for the Patriots to prevail.

The Giants defense needs to be concerned with one objective: pressure Brady. They have the personnel to do it. Based on the regular season I would say the Giants have the best pass rush in the league, though the Chargers are close. If this unit can play even higher than their normal level, they can sustain the Patriots offense just enough to edge out a victory.

Final Thoughts and Prediction

In summary, if the Giants can pressure Brady consistently and run the ball, they will win. Conversely, the Patriots need to protect Brady and stop the run to preserve their hopes of perfection. Over the week I think most analysts have predicted the Patriots victory (except Mike Wilbon, get well soon), and rightly so. I cannot ignore the fact that they have not lost yet. Still, I think that this will motivate the Giants enough to pull out a victory. Maybe I am rooting against the Patriots rather than for the Giants; actually that is precisely true. I have said for the entire season that the Patriots would not win the Superbowl, and today I stand firm by my prediction. Plus, everyone knows that cheaters never win and winners never cheat, right? Right?

Giants 34-31

I am absolutely sure that many of you disagree with me, so let me know how wrong I am in the comments. Also, check my flickr tomorrow for pictures from the RIT Superbowl party in Clark Gym.